CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS AND ADVISORS |
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SHOULD YOU BE
PREPARING A ‘WAR’ PORTFOLIO? Should you be bulletproofing your portfolio for wartime? That’s the recommendation of some “investment
advisors,” and some investors are listening. But it’s not a good idea,
caution CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals, who believe that fear
should never drive investment decisions. In the aftermath of September 11, military strikes in
Afghanistan, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the threat of war with Iraq,
suggestions for defensive “war” portfolios have begun to appear. While
these portfolios vary, they generally follow similar investment advice: load
up on defense-industry stocks, gold, and U.S. government securities. Some
recommend oil stocks on the premise that a Middle East war will dramatically
push up the price of oil. Others like the stocks of companies producing
products that consumers will buy regardless of the circumstances: food,
tobacco, medicine and so on. One defensive war portfolio found on the Internet calls
for 70 percent U.S. Treasury securities and certificates of deposit, 10
percent precious coins, 10 percent defense-industry stocks, and 5 percent each
of Swiss francs and New Zealand dollars. If disaster really does strike, some
would argue that this would be a sound portfolio. But one of the problems,
point out others, is that this particular “war” portfolio has been
recommended for the past six years—the first four of which saw record stock
market growth. It’s the same principle as having a very defensive
portfolio whose asset allocation mix is always braced for a market downturn,
say planners. Yes, markets periodically falter, as they have the last two
years, and a conservative portfolio might serve you well at that point. The
problem is that we rarely can forecast a market downturn and in the meantime
we miss out on the growth, which, over the long haul, has more than overcome
the downturns. Does the idea of a defensive portfolio sound familiar? Go back to the fall of 1999, when alarmists warned of the impending Y2K disaster and some panicked investors converted all their investments to cash, often with significant tax consequences and missed market returns. Unlike the Y2K scare, terrorism is real. But war has hit
Americans before, and in most cases the economy and the stock market have
weathered them well. The S&P 500 was up 20 percent Although most investors will maintain their current
portfolios, some panic and switch from long-held asset allocations to these war
portfolios. Other investors have hunkered down with a lot of cash, though other
factors such as the economy, Enron and the continued whipsawing of the stock
market have contributed to their nervousness. The smarter move, say planners, is to stick with a
portfolio that’s well diversified and that reflects your long-range financial
goals, risk tolerance and personal circumstances. You should be investing only
for the long-term, such as for retirement and college, and not let potential
catastrophes—whose dimensions are unknown and which could affect portfolios in
unforeseen ways—dictate your portfolio’s makeup. A disaster-driven portfolio is usually an extremely
conservative one, and as a consequence, investors following them are more likely
to fail to reach their financial goals because of inferior long-term returns
than because of shorter market declines due to a disaster, argue most planners.
Besides, they say, if a national catastrophe were to strike that truly crippled
our nation—devastating terrorist attacks or a nuclear attack, for
example—even a “war” portfolio would unlikely be of much value in the
aftermath. For those investors who still feel defensive about their
portfolio, some planners recommend tips that can help but not hobble the overall
portfolio too much. One suggestion is to designate perhaps ten percent of the
portfolio to a defensive position, such as U.S. Treasuries, precious metals,
cash and real estate. Another is to buy certificates of deposit from financial
institutions located in different geographic areas. But ultimately the best defense, say most planners, is a well-diversified portfolio that over time will perform satisfactorily regardless of the circumstances. A portfolio that holds foreign stocks and foreign bonds, for example, which many planners recommend under normal circumstances, could help blunt the effects of damage to the United States. June 2002— This column is produced by the Financial Planning Association, the membership organization for the financial planning community, and is provided by McGuire & Co., LLP, a local member in good standing of the FPA. |
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