
Market Volatility
Shouldn’t Rattle a Good Financial Plan
On Feb. 27 this
year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 416 points, the biggest drop
since the market reopened after the 9/11 attacks. By early May, the market
had more than made up those losses and stood at record highs.
How did you react?
Did you turn off the news? Did you call your broker in a panic? Or did you
call your financial planner to see if your plan was solid?
It’s easy to
succumb to the urge to sell if the market takes a header or buy if it’s
headed upward. But sudden action is usually a mistake. In the late 1980s,
Harvard psychologist Paul Andreassen made news with a research project
that found that people who listened to market news actually made lower
returns. Why? Because those who sold – or bought – during a market
swing probably found a day later that the market was really running on
hype, not fundamentals.
You pay a financial
planner to devise a financial strategy that matches your risk tolerance
and long-term financial goals. No, there is absolutely no way to guarantee
that you’ll never lose money. But if a plan truly matches you, the noise
level on TV shouldn’t make a difference. So the next time the Dow spikes
or slides, ask yourself:
What’s my plan? If
you’ve worked with a good financial planner, you should be able to
articulate those goals all by yourself or refer to an investment policy
statement you made together. Much of the riskiest investing, overbuying
and panic selling during the late 1990s and early 2000s could have been
avoided if individual investors had sought advice for achieving long-term
specific goals such as retirement or a college education.
What’s my risk
tolerance? At your first
meeting with a planner, you should have discussed – and later filled out
– a form asking you a number of questions about how you handle risk and
what your expectations were about investment returns. You might have had
to do this more than once if your risk tolerance was low but your
investment expectations were high – low-risk investors can’t expect
the highest returns. That’s part of the education process when you visit
a planner.
Am I prepared to
stay invested – no matter what?
We all remember the "Tech Wreck" of 2000. At the worst of that
downturn, investors bailed out of the stock market or drastically cut
back, only to get back in after they were "convinced" that the
market was rebounding. In reality, they missed out on stock market gains
during the early stages of recovery, and that’s costly in the long run.
Of course, some investors looking for that late 20th century
investment high also got into the real estate market, and they perhaps
learned a similar lesson when that market started heading south two years
ago.
In 2004, SEI
Investments studied 12 bear markets since World War II. Investors who
either stayed in the market through its bottom, or were fortunate to enter
at the bottom, saw the S&P 500 gain an average of 32.5 percent (not
counting dividends) during the first year of recovery. Investors who
missed even just the first week of recovery saw their gains that first
year slide to 24.3 percent. Those who waited three months before getting
back in gained only 14.8 percent.
Am I diversified? The
NASDAQ lost 39 percent of its value just in 2001, and another 21 percent
in 2002. Meanwhile, real estate investment trusts, which performed poorly
in 1998 and 1999 when stocks were booming, had banner years in 2000 and
2001, performed so-so in 2002, and had an excellent 2003. Bonds also
returned well during the bear market. Your planner, based on your risk
profile, should have you in diversified investments that fit your goals.
Do I still feel the same way I
used to about returns? Having
a long-term investment plan doesn’t mean make the plan and leave it to
gather dust. You and your planner should decide when it’s time for a
review of your investment goals and your feelings about them. An annual
conversation makes sense if nothing’s going on, but life events like
death, divorce, kids moving out and illness are good reasons to do a
head-to-toe review of a financial plan.
May 2007— This column is
produced by the Financial Planning Association, the membership
organization for the financial planning community, and is provided by
McGuire & Co., LLC, a local member of the FPA.
(Back to
Financial Planning Page)